俄羅斯的公民社會覺醒對普京說“不”

俄羅斯的公民社會覺醒對普京說“不”

俄羅斯的公民社會覺醒對普京說“不”

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12月24日,俄羅斯莫斯科,反對派人士舉著普京頭戴避孕套的海報抗議杜馬選舉舞弊杜馬選舉大戰之前兩周的一個晚上,弗拉基米爾 普京身著藍色西裝,沒打領帶,一身輕松,來到奧林匹克體育中心,觀看一場重量級拳擊比賽。國傢二臺電視直播畫面上,不時有掃過普京的鏡頭。這是在美俄兩名大力士之間的無規則終極格鬥,身上紋有“自由”與“團結”的美國壯漢,被俄方對手打得鼻青臉腫。賽事終局哨聲響起,裁判高舉俄壯漢的勝利之手。坐在最前排的普京,此時跨進角鬥場,向敗者致敬,向勝者祝賀。來自華盛頓州的美國大力士,已經無法站立,被架著拖出瞭賽場。擅長於打比喻和象征主義寫法的美國雜志《紐約客》傳記作者大衛 瑞姆尼克,就是這樣鋪開瞭對普京的敘事與議論。他把觀眾喻為是支持普京的民眾,而“無規則角鬥”暗指瞭兩周後惹起巨大爭議的議會杜馬選舉。他的《公民社會:反普京運動能走多遠》的標題,就已經嵌入瞭一個直白的問題:當普京在角鬥賽場高聲贊揚俄大力士是“真正的男人”之時,觀眾吹起瞭喝倒彩的口哨,這前所未有的“叛逆”,令普京膽寒,身後的支持者,會一如既往支持他嗎?12月24日,俄羅斯反對派在首都莫斯科再次舉行名為“為瞭誠實的選舉”的示威集會。與兩周前的示威活動相比,此次示威活動呈現出參與人數更多、組織更為嚴密、政府前高官出席等特點。根據俄內務部的數據,當天共有2.9萬人參加集會(組織者稱超過10萬人),超過上次集會的2.5萬人。普京民意跳水拳擊比賽當晚,反對派領袖、活動傢阿列克謝 納瓦爾尼發出一篇挑戰性的博文,直指“一個時代的終結”。而政治諷刺作者維克多 申德羅維奇,在“每日通報”網站上寫道:“在群眾發出這些意味深長的噓聲後,普京主義的終結將不期而至。”在目睹噓聲之後,大衛 瑞姆尼克找到瞭普京發言人彼斯科夫,詢問他如何評價這一插曲。彼斯科夫顧左右而言他,稱這可能與美選手被架著出場有關,並稱美國選手事後說瞭,美國賽場上噓聲很正常,完全略過瞭這些口哨聲是沖著普京,也不否認賽場上有人在高喊“普京,下臺”的口號。那是普京宣佈“王者歸來”,準備角逐2012年3月大選過後不久,普京及其跟隨者,並不適應這些噓聲。在普京統治的長達11年時間之內,他周圍包圍著的,全是溢美之詞和歡呼聲。2007年,當連任兩屆總統的普京決定在憲法框架內實現權力轉移之時,其民望也迎來最高峰,多達80%的民眾支持他。然而普京轉變身份,成為梅德韋傑夫內閣總理時,更多的人把他視為俄羅斯的實際掌權者。由於梅德韋傑夫並不表示隻擔任一屆,之後把總統寶座還給已經跳過不得連任兩屆憲法限制的普京,確實有相當部分的人們期待著普梅之爭,以推動競爭政治。《紐約客》的文章說,從很多事件中都可以找到奧林匹克體育中心的口哨聲的起由,特別是在普京於2011年9月宣佈,他早在“幾年前”就決定於2012年重返總統之位。大衛 瑞姆尼克分析稱,這一表態意味著,從2008年起出任總統的梅德韋傑夫又得當回總理,重新又一次受制於普京。很多俄羅斯人已經厭倦瞭這樣的前景。普京宣佈角逐2012年3月大選時,民意還維持在70%的無可挑戰的地位,到2011年12月底,才不到兩個月功夫,其支持率已經劇降到40%。假如現在就舉行選舉,普京已經不可能在第一輪就當選,沒有超過半數支持率的他將不得不進入第二輪角逐。對追求絕對威權的普京而言,通過第二輪才勉強當選,無疑是一種難以面對的羞辱。反普京潮出現在普京參觀美俄拳擊手終極格鬥後兩周,即12月4日,俄羅斯迎來瞭杜馬選舉。這次杜馬選舉,執政黨“統俄黨”雖再奪議會第一大黨的地位,但不是真正的贏傢。相比於上一屆議會,他們痛失七十多張議席,淪為不怎麼強勢的第一大黨和多數黨。從基本面上看,贏傢應屬俄共和“公正俄羅斯黨”,他們的議席較上次有瞭增進。“亞博盧”黨等強勁反對普京的政黨,僅隻獲得3.4%的選票,沒有邁過杜馬7%門檻,沒有斬獲議會半席。在指責選舉不公、作弊、操縱結果等人中,亞博盧黨人屬於嗆聲最大的。俄羅斯議會選舉並不執行絕對的比例代表制,支持率沒有過門檻的小黨們,隻能充當湊熱鬧的角色。而一旦選舉真被操縱,他們的得票率就有可能永遠邁不出7%的門檻。小黨們擠出的民意空間,被超過門檻的四大政黨私分。如普京的統俄黨,得票率僅40%多一點,卻在杜馬議席瓜分中獲得近60%,這多出的“肥水”,顯然是小黨們白手拱讓的。12月10日,俄羅斯各地均現抗議,波及的地域,從聖彼得堡到西伯利亞,光是莫斯科博洛特納亞廣場上的示威者,人數就超過2萬人。這也是俄羅斯近二十年來規模最為龐大的示威抗議。這一輪示威抗議,表面上看,是12月4日議會“杜馬”選舉之後出現的“選舉不公”抗議的延續。然而,從本質上看,這一輪越演越烈的抗議潮,其實針對的是“統俄黨”總統候選人普京,表達瞭“沒有普京的俄羅斯”的變革主張。普京對美國務卿希拉裡的指責,大為光火。美國參議員麥凱恩說“普京瘋瞭”,普京則反唇相譏,說這越戰老兵曾當過戰俘,精神失常是可以出現的。俄羅斯從2007年的極度崇拜普京威權統治,到經歷瞭2008年至今的經濟低迷與衰退,對當前經濟停滯與腐敗橫行感到相當不滿。在一次座談時,梅德韋傑夫脫口而出:“有時我真想判處腐敗官員死刑”。這從另一面證明瞭當局治理腐敗的“黔驢技窮”,也反映瞭該黨能出手的招數都已經用盡。普京民調急速下降,這是更直觀的反映。可以說,俄羅斯12月份接二連三出現抗議潮,而且人數和規模持續上升,精英人士也紛紛加入其中,這說明俄羅斯的確出現瞭一股不可小視的“反普京潮”。戈爾巴喬夫攪局12月24日聖誕前夜大示威之前,傳出蘇聯前總統戈爾巴喬夫也會“上街”,甚至可能發表演講。不過,到現在為止,沒有消息能證實他當天真的上街瞭。對於這位已經年近80的老人而言,隻要表態,所起的作用就已經不亞於“上街”。英國《每日電訊報》稱,就在12月24日示威活動的前一天,戈爾巴喬夫接受俄羅斯一傢自由派報紙的采訪,對克裡姆林宮提出瞭有史以來最嚴厲的批評。他說,他為普京對近期俄羅斯一系列示威遊行的“不誠懇態度”感到震驚和失望。他還說:“我感覺與普京綁在瞭一起。他剛開始執政時,我到處積極地支持他,不管是國內還是國外。但現在,你看看。”除瞭批評普京,戈爾巴喬夫還對梅德韋傑夫進行瞭嚴厲的指責。他說,梅氏對於民眾提出的“可信指控”報以很軟弱的回應,這可能毀掉他的政治事業。12月25日,正好是戈爾巴喬夫宣佈辭去蘇聯總統的20周年紀念日。戈爾巴喬夫接受莫斯科回聲電臺采訪時,呼籲普京在明年3月不要參與總統選舉。他說:“我很高興看見人民醒覺,帶來很大的希望。我勸喻普京現在就要離開。他已經做瞭三屆:兩屆總統和一屆總理。他已經做瞭三屆,足夠瞭!如果普京現在肯下臺,人民都會記得他執政12年間所做過的好事。”大衛 瑞姆尼克在《紐約客》文章中回憶道:“我立刻想起瞭21年前的五一節遊行。當時我站在紅場上,看到上千人突然停止行進,站定在紅場的鵝卵石地上,抬頭望見樓上的戈爾巴喬夫,憤怒大喊:‘下臺!’‘可恥!’‘別幻想瞭,你們完瞭!’”戈爾巴喬夫果斷順應民意,他下臺瞭。蘇聯解體瞭。而普京曾痛心地表示,蘇聯解體是20世紀最大的地緣政治災難。公民社會才是挑戰者誰真的在反對普京?誰又有什麼實力能與普京抗衡?問今天俄羅斯,無人。《英國電訊報》2010年報道稱,普京9月6日在黑海和一幫外國學者和記者“非正式聊天”時暗示,他有可能參加2012年總統選舉,與現任總統梅德韋傑夫競爭總統一職。普京甚至拿美國的羅斯福與之比較。言下之意是,梅氏不反,普京地位難撼。在此之前,俄羅斯《生意人報》2010年8月31日就載文稱,普京對預言大師“章魚保羅”頗感興趣。如章魚預測準確,普京就會買下它,以免別人吃掉。想吃章魚肉喝章魚血的人當然是競選失敗者瞭。《英國電訊報》列舉瞭一些有能力挑戰普京的人。第一號人物是梅德韋傑夫。普京曾言,與梅氏之間會是一場公平的競爭。但最後謎底揭開時,梅氏謙讓瞭,這一讓步,也相當於毀掉瞭這4年累積起來的形象。假如現在普京不想玩瞭,退出瞭,梅氏也一樣會不受人待見,因為公眾會把對普京的不滿,轉移到他身上,把他視為普京的替身或傀儡。所以,普京要是決定退選,那很有可能讓給馬特韋延科。馬特韋延科,聖彼得堡州長,今年62歲。他尤如上世紀90年代的莫斯科市長盧日科夫,治理聖彼得堡成就斐然,能力突出。早在2008年,普京就曾物色過她來當接班人,可見她的實力不弱。經過近幾年的努力,聖彼得堡的建設更上一層樓。而她與盧日科夫不一樣的地方是,當盧日科夫在莫斯科大興房地產業時,腐敗似乎也在增加,而馬特韋延科的聖彼得堡卻很少傳出腐敗指控。這名女州長也有俄羅斯的“默克爾”之稱。假如“統一俄羅斯”決定讓其出馬,那馬特韋延科很有可能成為俄羅斯第一個女總統。還有重要的一點是,因其民望和能力與普京持平。其他人物則來自俄共久加諾夫等議會反對黨領袖,但在這輪反普京運動中,這三大議會反對黨,都不願就“重新選舉”問題表態,也不願公開出來挑戰普京。因此,他們也難有實力問鼎權力最高峰。其實在俄民眾中,還有一個非黨派人物,他就是霍多爾科夫斯基,俄羅斯前首富,石油大亨。美國《外交政策》2010年8月10日的一個影響力榜說,盡管這個石油大亨早已經被普京投入大牢,但這個曾經的俄羅斯首富極有可能成為普京再續總統夢的幹擾源。《外交政策》稱:“霍多爾科夫斯基是俄羅斯最重要的政治反對派,也是俄羅斯總理普京最持久和尖銳的國內批評者。”霍多爾科夫斯基被視為能團結那些四分五裂的反對黨的真正精神領袖。可惜他現在還關在大牢。大衛 瑞姆尼克在《紐約客》中說,真正有能力反對普京的力量,不是某個人,也不是某個黨派,而是俄羅斯正在成長的公民社會。反普京運動,是一場公民社會運動,這僅隻是俄社會變革的前奏。普京即便在2012年3月的大選中如願以償,正在成長起來的公民社會也將形成最大的反對黨聯盟,壓縮普京威權統治的空間。普京通過梅氏表態,願意進行大膽的政治改革,也願意廢除7%門檻及反對黨團登記改革。這些主張遠大於反對派們的訴求。這說明,隻有民願才能改變普京。普京也說過,他會傾聽民願,假如人民不再支持他,他會知趣的。(南方人物周刊)

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